I’ve been writing this blog in pieces since the election.
Structuring this has been extremely difficult because there are so many
strands. The following is a mishmash of thoughts that I have tried in vain to
give an effective structure to.
The Numbers:
The following graphs represent the votes in the last
election and the regional variation. Overall the Conservatives gained 608k
votes, Labour gained 738k votes and the Lib Dems lost 4,421k votes. The hit
that Labour took in Scotland losing 328k votes and all but one of their seats
made this election result more devastating than it otherwise would have been.
The Conservatives gaining so many votes was, for me, the real surprise of the election.
Lib Dems:
The
collapse of the Lib Dem vote has changed politics in this country, perhaps
forever. This collapse made a significant change to the political landscape in
Scotland where I believe the vote transferred to the SNP giving the SNP a
platform to control the Scottish Parliament. This control enabled the SNP to improve their
popularity through the referendum. This gave the Tories a key campaigning piece that worked better than they could have hoped. In the UK, the votes split off a number of
ways enabling Tories and Labour to take many of their seats. This collapse is
what gave the Tories their majority in parliament.
Many comments I have read have argued the
collapse of the Lib Dem vote is due to them being blamed for the Coalition’s
less popular policies. This is not what I encountered talking to their previous
supporters on the door. From all of the people I have spoken to, it seems that
the Lib Dems failed to appreciate how much they relied on three key issues: tactical
voting in Tory seats, how many people who had voted for them were doing so as a
protest against Labour and the Tories and finally that their supporters were
not at all supportive of Tory policies. As soon as they joined with the Tories
in government, the tactical voters and protest voters stopped voting for them and
many of their voters were dismayed by what they supported in government leaving
them significantly short in votes.
The Popular View:
There are many popular theories as to why Labour failed to
increase their vote sufficiently. I have picked out three that I was not
convinced were overwhelming but which will have had an influence.
“You picked the wrong
Milliband.”
This is something many people have said to me. However,
this has overwhelming been from lifelong Tories. I only met a couple of Labour
voter on the doorstep who were influenced by this and one unsure voter who said
they could not warm to Ed. Whilst this undoubtedly had an impact I do not
believe this was the overwhelming factor the media wanted it to be.
“Labour were too
left/right wing.”
Not once did I speak to a voter on the doorstep who felt
that Labour were too left wing. I did meet a few people that had stopped voting
Labour under Blair as they felt he was too right wing who had not come back.
However, I think the old definitions of left and right wing are no longer
things that the majority of people understand.
The Media
The Tory papers are losing some of their influence, however,
they are still the Tories Ace card and it did have an influence. The papers
headlines are often read out on the news and radio in the morning. It means
that no matter how much money Labour spend on campaigning, they will always
have an uphill battle fighting this. That is why the Tories are so desperate to
get rid of the BBC. Whilst the BBC has a lot of Tory supporters in key
positions, they do make an effort at neutrality that no other media source
does.
The Party Campaigns
The Tory Campaign
I heard Neil Kinnock speak several months ago. He said
something about the Tories; “Poor at governing, superb at campaigning”. The
Tories messages were defined and they concentrated on three things; The
Economy, SNP and Leadership. From a marketing point of view the power of three
is something that is talked about. This messaging was clear and it was
effective.
Beware the SNP! Beware the economy! Beware jobs! Beware
overspending! Beware higher taxes! Be afraid, be very, very afraid. The Tories
do negative campaigning better than anyone. People say they hate negative
campaigning, but this has worked for the Tories for the last fifty years. There
is no doubt that it was effective. On the day at the polling station undecided
voters were swayed by this. Labour only had one negative line, the NHS.
The Tories threw money at their Social Media campaign. I do
not know if it was effective or not. No-one I spoke to said they were convinced
by it. However, it is clear that this enabled them to target demographics in a
way Labour simply do not have the money to.
The Labour Campaign
Labour’s campaign had only one message, the NHS. The NHS
message was effective, but to be electable, Labour needed more. All of the other
Labour policies came out far too late and were not clear. If I as a Labour
supporter could not define them, what chance would an undecided voter stand.
Labour completely failed to distinguish a separate vision to the Conservatives
on public spending, education, business and the economy. They were against zero
hours contracts, but failed to show how they would make people’s lives better
and businesses prosper.
Leaflets and more leaflets! The Labour campaign spammed
voters. It was ridiculous the amount that went out. Many people just lobbed
them all straight in the bin. I feel that leafletting is only an effective
method of campaigning when sending a few pieces with clear messages. Sometimes
two pieces were delivered on a single day which was overkill.
Canvassing and more canvassing! Labour’s volunteers spent a
huge amount of time over the last four years asking people how they were going
to vote. This time could have been better spent talking to undecided voters
about Labour policies. Labour’s sole advantage is the feet on the ground and
they did not use them as well as they could have.
There was one piece of effective social media campaigning
from Labour, it was the NHS birth number. This got people talking and was
positive. It reminded people that Labour created the NHS and that it is
important to us all. The rest of the campaigning on Social Media, asking people
to share/retweet statuses just made people alienate their friends. In my view the
Tories were guilty of exactly the same thing. I just ended up blocking Tory friends
on social media who shared their campaigning material, and I think Tory
supporters will have done the same. The sole difference was that the Tories had
money to spend targeting people with adverts to bypass the need for relying on
individuals sharing statuses.
The Deciding Factors?
The following two points are what I consider to be the
deciding factors in the election. As I have said, I believe the above points
were influencers, but these two following issues were the reason Labour failed
to gain more votes. I have heard these issues discussed often in the last
couple of weeks and as a Labour support, my hope and expectation is that regardless
of which candidate becomes the next Labour leader, these issues will not be
influencers in five year’s time.
The Big Lie
In the 12 months following the last election the Tories,
and their friends in the media, pinned the blame for the global financial crash
on the Labour Party and overspending. It genuinely astounds me that this was
successful. Anyone who knows their history is aware that Margaret Thatcher
deregulated the banks and it is this deregulation that left the UK so
vulnerable to the financial crash. Yes Labour did not reverse this
deregulation, but given the UK’s reliance on these institutions it would have
been economic suicide to do so. Also, if overspending was the cause, then it is
worth noting that until 2008, Labour spent a lower amount (as a % vs GDP) than
the preceding Tory governments and George Osbourne had publically promised to
match Labour’s spending plans.
The Labour Party leadership completely failed to deal with
this lie. It had five years to do so yet inexplicably they avoided the
argument. Ed Balls losing his seat was an almost symbolic representation of
this failure.
Europe and UKIP
More previous Labour voters voted UKIP than previous Tory
voters. I would put this at about 2 or 3 to 1. Before the election I thought
Labour should have offered voters a referendum on Europe. I only told one
person of this thinking it was controversial, and that no one else would agree
with me. It is interesting that since the election a number of Labour MP’s have
said this publically. Offering the referendum would have neutralised the UKIP
vote but also enabled Labour to talk positively about its record on immigration
which has been attacked.
To be clear, I do not think the UK should leave Europe, but
the issue needs to be taken seriously. There are voters who are concerned that
infrastructure and jobs are not going to be there for their children due to
immigration. These people are not racists and bigots, simply ignorant of the
facts about immigration. This ignorance is mainly caused by the media, but has
been perpetuated by UKIP. Right wing papers look for stories to make people
angry about immigrants misusing the benefits system in this country. An honest
debate is needed to educate the public on the true costs and values of
immigration so an informed decision can be made and a referendum is a good way
to do this.